{"id":18793,"date":"2026-02-18T18:28:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/?p=18793"},"modified":"2026-02-18T18:28:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:28:57","slug":"rapports-du-conseil-central-de-leconomie-prudence-a-un-an-de-la-fixation-de-la-marge-salariale-2027-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/rapports-du-conseil-central-de-leconomie-prudence-a-un-an-de-la-fixation-de-la-marge-salariale-2027-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"Rapports du Conseil Central de l’Economie: prudence \u00e0 un an de la fixation de la marge salariale 2027-2028."},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Conseil central de l\u2019\u00e9conomie (CCE) publie aujourd\u2019hui trois rapports cl\u00e9s pour l\u2019\u00e9valuation de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de la Belgique : le Rapport technique interm\u00e9diaire, le rapport sur les trois handicaps et le rapport sur la situation macro\u00e9conomique des entreprises. Pour la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration des entreprises de Belgique (FEB), ces publications sont certes int\u00e9ressantes et pourraient indiquer une \u00e9volution plut\u00f4t positive, mais la prudence demeure de mise.<\/p>\n

Les chiffres pour 2025 et 2026 restent des estimations entour\u00e9es de beaucoup d\u2019incertitudes qui pourraient encore changer fortement dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e qui vient, tandis que le handicap salarial absolu\/historique demeure \u00e9lev\u00e9 (encore 10% en 2024) et que la rentabilit\u00e9 des entreprises reste sous pression, en particulier dans l\u2019industrie.<\/p>\n

Des estimations provisoires qui appellent \u00e0 la prudence<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Le Rapport technique interm\u00e9diaire constitue un \u00e9l\u00e9ment important de la loi de 1996 : il fait, \u00e0 mi-parcours entre deux p\u00e9riodes de n\u00e9gociation salariale AIP, une estimation de l\u2019\u00e9volution du handicap salarial de la Belgique par rapport \u00e0 ses principaux pays voisins et donc compar\u00e9 \u00e0 1996. Les premi\u00e8res estimations publi\u00e9es aujourd\u2019hui sugg\u00e8rent un handicap salarial l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif en 2026 (-1%) par rapport au niveau de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence de 1996. Ce r\u00e9sultat doit n\u00e9anmoins \u00eatre pris avec des pincettes, car il n\u2019est bas\u00e9 que sur des donn\u00e9es connues et relativement stables des Comptes nationaux de trois trimestres sur huit (1er, 2e et 3e trimestre de 2025). De plus, l\u2019\u00e9volution potentiellement positive du handicap belge est seulement due \u00e0 une \u00e9volution des salaires allemands (r\u00e9vision de +4% sur les deux ans), r\u00e9cemment identifi\u00e9e par la Bundesbank dans les salaires non conventionnels (\u2018wage drift\u2019) du secteur des services allemand, qui est attribu\u00e9e \u00e0 de fortes p\u00e9nuries sur le march\u00e9 de travail. En Belgique, la situation est comparable, mais les statistiques pour identifier ce genre d\u2019\u00e9volution ne sont pas encore disponibles.<\/p>\n

La FEB appelle donc \u00e0 la prudence. Ces estimations reposent sur des donn\u00e9es provisoires et des projections qui devront \u00eatre consolid\u00e9es dans les douze prochains mois. Elles restent en particulier sensibles \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des estimations salariales chez nos voisins (notamment en Allemagne), ainsi qu\u2019aux incertitudes li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, \u00e0 l\u2019indexation et au \u2019wage drift\u2019 en Belgique.<\/p>\n

Un handicap historique toujours lourd<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Si le handicap par rapport \u00e0 1996 semble s\u2019am\u00e9liorer graduellement, le rapport sur les trois handicaps confirme en revanche une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 structurelle : le handicap salarial absolu (ou historique) de la Belgique reste tr\u00e8s important. En termes absolus, le co\u00fbt du travail demeure significativement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que dans les pays voisins, avec un \u00e9cart qui se situait toujours autour de 10% en 2024. Ce handicap p\u00e8se sur la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 des entreprises belges et fragilise notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 attirer des investissements, \u00e0 pr\u00e9server l\u2019emploi et \u00e0 maintenir une base industrielle solide.<\/p>\n

Une rentabilit\u00e9 en l\u00e9ger redressement, mais encore en dessous de son niveau historique<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Le troisi\u00e8me rapport, relatif \u00e0 la situation macro\u00e9conomique des entreprises, montre que si l\u2019exc\u00e9dent brut d\u2019exploitation des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res a augment\u00e9, la rentabilit\u00e9 nette apr\u00e8s investissements et imp\u00f4ts n\u2019est toujours pas revenue \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant l\u2019introduction de la loi de 1996 (7,3% de la valeur ajout\u00e9e en 2024 par rapport \u00e0 8,2% en 1995). En effet, apr\u00e8s une baisse continue jusqu\u2019en 2013, la rentabilit\u00e9 s\u2019est redress\u00e9e graduellement, mais reste inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 son niveau de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. Cette divergence entre l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019exc\u00e9dent brut d\u2019exploitation et celle de la rentabilit\u00e9 nette s\u2019explique principalement par le fait qu\u2019une part croissante des revenus des entreprises a d\u00fb \u00eatre consacr\u00e9e au renouvellement des machines et des \u00e9quipements dans le cadre du verdissement et de la digitalisation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, et au paiement de davantage d\u2019imp\u00f4ts des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Prudence et priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019industrie<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ces rapports apportent des \u00e9l\u00e9ments utiles pour \u00e9clairer le d\u00e9bat sur la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et la situation des entreprises. Toutefois, la FEB souligne qu\u2019il serait pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 de tirer des conclusions d\u00e9finitives sur la base de chiffres encore largement provisoires et entour\u00e9s d\u2019incertitudes. Surtout, les moyennes macro\u00e9conomiques masquent des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s sectorielles tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes. L\u2019industrie, qui est le secteur le plus expos\u00e9 \u00e0 la concurrence internationale, reste sous forte pression et constitue le v\u00e9ritable indicateur de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de notre \u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

Les derniers chiffres du commerce ext\u00e9rieur confirment d\u2019ailleurs cette fragilit\u00e9 : au dernier trimestre 2025, les exportations belges ont recul\u00e9 de 4,2% par rapport au m\u00eame trimestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, marquant une baisse pour la troisi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive. Cette tendance est d\u2019autant plus pr\u00e9occupante dans certains secteurs strat\u00e9giques comme la chimie, dont les exportations ont diminu\u00e9 de 8% sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n

Dans ce contexte, la priorit\u00e9 doit rester le renforcement de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 structurelle et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du climat d\u2019investissement, afin de pr\u00e9server l\u2019activit\u00e9 industrielle et l\u2019emploi en Belgique.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: FEB<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Conseil central de l\u2019\u00e9conomie (CCE) publie aujourd\u2019hui trois rapports cl\u00e9s pour l\u2019\u00e9valuation de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de la Belgique : le Rapport technique interm\u00e9diaire, le rapport sur les trois handicaps et le rapport sur la situation macro\u00e9conomique des entreprises. Pour […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[65,10],"tags":[304,1084,374],"yoast_head":"\nRapports du Conseil Central de l'Economie: prudence \u00e0 un an de la fixation de la marge salariale 2027-2028. - Peoplesphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/rapports-du-conseil-central-de-leconomie-prudence-a-un-an-de-la-fixation-de-la-marge-salariale-2027-2028\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rapports du Conseil Central de l'Economie: prudence \u00e0 un an de la fixation de la marge salariale 2027-2028. - Peoplesphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le Conseil central de l\u2019\u00e9conomie (CCE) publie aujourd\u2019hui trois rapports cl\u00e9s pour l\u2019\u00e9valuation de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de la Belgique : le Rapport technique interm\u00e9diaire, le rapport sur les trois handicaps et le rapport sur la situation macro\u00e9conomique des entreprises. 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