{"id":19380,"date":"2026-07-13T07:44:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T05:44:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/?p=19380"},"modified":"2026-07-13T07:44:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T05:44:55","slug":"vieillissement-en-belgique-a-lhorizon-2070-les-depenses-sociales-vont-continuer-a-augmenter-jusquen-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/vieillissement-en-belgique-a-lhorizon-2070-les-depenses-sociales-vont-continuer-a-augmenter-jusquen-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"Vieillissement en Belgique \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2070: les d\u00e9penses sociales vont continuer \u00e0 augmenter jusqu\u2019en 2050."},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tude sur le vieillissement a analys\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences budg\u00e9taires et sociales du vieillissement. Entre 2025 et 2050, les d\u00e9penses sociales passent de 25,7% \u00e0 27,2% du PIB, avant de se stabiliser jusqu\u2019en 2070. Cette progression est port\u00e9e par l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses de soins de sant\u00e9 et, dans une moindre mesure, par celle des d\u00e9penses de pensions.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9forme des pensions contribue en effet \u00e0 freiner la croissance des d\u00e9penses de pensions, mais se traduit \u00e9galement par une diminution progressive du niveau de vie relatif des pensionn\u00e9s par rapport aux travailleurs.<\/p>\n

Le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire du vieillissement augmente jusqu\u2019en 2050<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Selon les projections du Comit\u00e9 d’\u00e9tude, les d\u00e9penses sociales passent de 25,7% du PIB en 2025 \u00e0 27,2% en 2050, avant de se stabiliser \u00e0 l\u2019horizon de 2070.<\/p>\n

Le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire du vieillissement sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2070, ou la variation de l\u2019ensemble des d\u00e9penses sociales entre 2025 et 2070, s’\u00e9l\u00e8ve ainsi \u00e0 1,5 point de pourcentage du PIB.<\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9penses de soins de sant\u00e9 constituent le principal moteur de cette hausse. Elles augmentent de 2,1 points de pourcentage du PIB sur la p\u00e9riode de projection, principalement sous l\u2019effet du vieillissement de la population, qui entra\u00eene un recours accru aux soins de sant\u00e9. En revanche, les d\u00e9penses de pensions augmentent \u00e0 un rythme plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9 (+0,7 point de pourcentage du PIB) : la r\u00e9cente r\u00e9forme des pensions a largement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 en contenir la croissance et r\u00e9duit le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire des pensions de 1,4 point de pourcentage du PIB sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2070.<\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9penses des autres prestations sociales diminuent, en pourcentage du PIB, notamment en raison des adaptations partielles au bien-\u00eatre des allocations sociales.<\/p>\n

Une croissance plus faible de la productivit\u00e9 augmenterait le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire du vieillissement<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Le Comit\u00e9 d’\u00e9tude a \u00e9galement \u00e9valu\u00e9 le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire du vieillissement dans un sc\u00e9nario de plus faible croissance de la productivit\u00e9. Le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence repose sur une croissance annuelle moyenne de la productivit\u00e9 de 1,1% sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2070. Si celle-ci n\u2019atteignait que 0,9%, le co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 3,3 points de pourcentage de PIB, contre 1,5 point de pourcentage dans le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. En effet, la croissance du PIB ralentirait davantage que celle des d\u00e9penses de pensions et de soins de sant\u00e9, de sorte que ces derni\u00e8res repr\u00e9senteraient une part plus importante du PIB.
\nCons\u00e9quences sociales du vieillissement<\/p>\n

Le Comit\u00e9 d’\u00e9tude a \u00e9galement analys\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences sociales du vieillissement. Il s’est notamment pench\u00e9 sur l’ad\u00e9quation des pensions, d’une part, \u00e0 travers l’\u00e9volution pass\u00e9e du risque de pauvret\u00e9 des pensionn\u00e9s et, d’autre part, \u00e0 travers l’\u00e9volution future du niveau de vie relatif des retrait\u00e9s par rapport aux travailleurs.<\/p>\n

D’apr\u00e8s les r\u00e9sultats de l’enqu\u00eate SILC, le risque de pauvret\u00e9 des pensionn\u00e9s est pass\u00e9 de 15,6% en 2021 \u00e0 8,5% en 2024, devenant ainsi inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui de l’ensemble de la population, qui a baiss\u00e9 de 13,1% \u00e0 10,9% sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Cette \u00e9volution s’explique principalement par les augmentations r\u00e9elles successives des pensions minimums et de la garantie de revenus aux personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es (GRAPA).<\/p>\n

Le Comit\u00e9 d’\u00e9tude a \u00e9galement examin\u00e9 l\u2019ad\u00e9quation des pensions \u00e0 long terme, en analysant dans quelle mesure la pension permet de maintenir le niveau de vie relatif des pensionn\u00e9s par rapport \u00e0 celui des travailleurs. Cette \u00e9volution est mesur\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019aide du benefit ratio, c’est-\u00e0-dire du rapport entre la pension brute moyenne et le revenu brut moyen du travail. A long terme, la pension moyenne augmente moins rapidement que les revenus du travail. En cons\u00e9quence, le benefit ratio est, en 2070, inf\u00e9rieur d\u2019environ 13% \u00e0 son niveau de 2025. La r\u00e9cente r\u00e9forme des pensions contribue notamment \u00e0 cette baisse du niveau de vie relatif des pensionn\u00e9s \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n

Le Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tude sur le vieillissement, cr\u00e9\u00e9 en 2001, fait partie du Conseil sup\u00e9rieur des Finances. Le Bureau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral du Plan est charg\u00e9 du secr\u00e9tariat du Comit\u00e9. Le rapport est disponible dans son int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 sur les sites internet du Conseil sup\u00e9rieur des Finances et du Bureau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral du Plan.<\/p>\n

Le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence suppose une l\u00e9gislation et un cadre institutionnel inchang\u00e9s et int\u00e8gre les mesures adopt\u00e9es ou annonc\u00e9es sur la base des informations disponibles le 29 mai 2026.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9cente r\u00e9forme des pensions est int\u00e9gr\u00e9e dans les projections de ce rapport, \u00e0 l\u2019instar de l\u2019\u00e9dition pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Alors que les projections publi\u00e9es l\u2019an dernier reposaient sur les mesures annonc\u00e9es par le gouvernement, les projections actuelles tiennent compte des modalit\u00e9s des mesures adopt\u00e9es depuis lors par le Parlement.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Bureau F\u00e9d\u00e9ral du Plan<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tude sur le vieillissement a analys\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences budg\u00e9taires et sociales du vieillissement. Entre 2025 et 2050, les d\u00e9penses sociales passent de 25,7% \u00e0 27,2% du PIB, avant de se stabiliser jusqu\u2019en 2070. Cette progression est port\u00e9e par […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19381,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[65,10],"tags":[3092,2138,548,53],"yoast_head":"\nVieillissement en Belgique \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2070: les d\u00e9penses sociales vont continuer \u00e0 augmenter jusqu\u2019en 2050. - Peoplesphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/peoplesphere.be\/fr\/vieillissement-en-belgique-a-lhorizon-2070-les-depenses-sociales-vont-continuer-a-augmenter-jusquen-2050\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vieillissement en Belgique \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2070: les d\u00e9penses sociales vont continuer \u00e0 augmenter jusqu\u2019en 2050. - Peoplesphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tude sur le vieillissement a analys\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences budg\u00e9taires et sociales du vieillissement. 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